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Permafrost degradation, widely observed in the Arctic in recent decades [ Romanovsky et al. Direct human impact through hydropower construction and diversions is also an irrefutable factor of change [ Ye et al. Changes in freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean, including that from the Lena River basin, are tracked until the end of 20th century. An unprecedented acceleration of minimum flow increase since the late s was recently observed across the limited data set of 12 Siberian gauges with longest discharge records [ Smith et al.

This abrupt change in the dominant driving processes potentially marks the rapid transition of the Arctic hydrological system to a new state. Whether this tendency continues in the 21st century is largely unknown, owing to the fact that previous studies only employed the records, ending in [ Yang et al. The last decade was never covered by change analysis owing to the lack of observation data.

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We present in this paper this new data set and the preliminary analysis of contemporary trends in river flows. Mountains and elevated plains with discontinuous and patchy mountain permafrost dominate the headwaters of the catchment. In this mountainous part, the Lena receives its major tributaries, the Vitim and Olekma Rivers. Lena , ]. The data set contains the most recent and complete daily time series, available for statistical analysis.

These data originate from digitizing the official printed publications of the Russian Hydrometeorological Agency from to and online data from the Russian Federal Water Resources Agency from to All stations have daily records up to , except several time series ending in — Stations with missing continuous daily data and with intermittent winter flow were omitted from analysis; hence, the number of gauges varies between 55 Q min , MADF , and Q max.

Hydrologic trends are frequently regarded as monotonic, but stationarity disruptions may also be responsible. Change points can emerge either from a transition to newer instrumentation or rating curve updates or in fact reflect a rapid transition of the hydrologic system toward a new state. Nonstationary time series were divided into subsets using detected change points as breakpoints, and the standard t test was applied to confirm a shift in mean.

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Single change points were found in all nonstationary records, except Lena at Tabaga with two break points. Here the earliest shift corresponds to an update of the station rating curve [ Kusatov , , personal communication], while the latest is observed in The major shifts in all nonstationary time series occur in the s, but when the data from adjacent decades are combined, the major changes in Q min occur between and 20 stations and, in MADF, between and 12 stations. Trends in Q max were found in nine time series, negative at three and positive at six gauges, out of the Decreasing daily annual flow is accompanied by a decrease in base flow at one station, Muya at Taksimo, with a break point in both subsets occurring in Our results, obtained from the new streamflow data set, confirm that upward trends in mean annual daily flow and winter base flow across the Lena River basin continue into the first decades of the 21st century.

A relatively small number of significant trends found in our study, compared to a recent paper by Dzhamalov et al. Substantial acceleration of the runoff increase in the last decade can be inferred from the comparison of our results with previous findings concerning recent trends in the Lena River basin. At the outlet of the basin, Lena at Kyusyur, an annual runoff increase by 0. Our study reports an increase in runoff at Kyusyur by Relating observed hydrological changes to either direct or indirect human impact, or natural causes, such as trends in precipitation, forest fires or permafrost thaw, is a challenging task.

The only activity, immediately and visibly impacting the streamflow, is hydropower construction. Three stations in the Lena River basin are affected by an increase in winter flow because of runoff regulation. The break point in minimum flow record of the Vitim River at Bodaybo corresponds roughly to the start of operations of the minor Mamakanskaya hydropower station HPS on the Mamakan River.

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On the Viluy River, the largest western tributary of the Lena River, the minimum winter flow at Suntar increased from 3. Mean annual flow remains stable owing to seasonal character of flow redistribution by this station. The increase in MADF is observed in the southeastern part of the basin, in the headwaters of main tributaries of the Lena River, i.